Across the board, 2022 was a crazy year and devastating for most. In terms of the crypto market, it was arguably the most unsettling year since its inception. Unprecedented events, such as top altcoins crashing to near zero, businesses collapsing, and multi-billion dollar hacks, are just a few.
So what does 2023 hold for us? I give my personal opinion.
1. Crypto market starts to recover
The first prophecy is good, a man who says it says the market is afraid to improve, but not as we know it. The worst market will be in the back of us by the end of this year. The main reasons why sales Crypto can be the minimum in the first installment is that the Federal Reserve should be expanded to interest. Obviously, stopping interest rates is not the same as reducing them, but it will probably be enough to keep crypto from falling further.
Similarly, the bottom for BTC will come in Q1 and may be 10,000 or a little lower, the main reason is that the market has not found its bottom and the crypto market is connected to the market. scholarship. It is expected that the market will fall another 20-30%, which will translate into a 40-60% fall in the price of BTC.
It is important to point out that BTC can burn below 10K due to various crypto-like Bitcoin bans due to power shortages. Also, those paying on Mount Gox can sell the BTC they should receive in Q1; However, recent reports indicate that Mt. Gox until September.
2. It looks like a potential SEC crackdown
The second crypto prediction for 2023 is that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will crack down on other major crypto projects or transactions. The presenter believes that another explosion is likely if Gary Gensler continues as SEC chairman. Gary’s term ends in 2026, so he has plenty of time to make some mistakes, assuming he won’t be fired from the SEC for his intimate meeting with Sam Bankman Fried at FTX. The regulations that the SEC uses to criminalize cryptocurrency have not yet been set. These abstract criteria can be summarized as a psychological description of the four parts of Howey’s test. For context, the Howey test is used to determine whether an asset is a security, such as the stock of a company that requires additional regulation from the SEC.
The fourth part of the Howey test is the most important in crypto if the asset can be verified by a third party that creates an expectation of value for the coin or token” Gary Gensler made it clear that no cryptocurrency is blocking BTC. He even targeted stablecoins, which is pointless. This could mean that any currency except BTC and exchanges are possible targets, especially POS cryptos. However, former director of the SEC’s corporate finance division, William Hinman, said cryptocurrencies must be “decentralized enough” to not be considered securities. Coin Center does not believe that the technological differences between POS and POW warrant different treatment. And that it is a misconception by policy makers that “staking” and “staking rewards” are a kind of security or interest-bearing lending activity that should be subject to regulation.
It will be interesting to see if Gary Gensler gets his way and if so, a Q1 crackdown could be a catalyst for crypto lows.
3. Good Cryptographic command
The third prophecy of 22 years is that there will be no superficial riches that will be found that many patterns will be good; But some will no longer go. It will also be a crypto policy that will be different from the area to the area, regardless of effort to create the entire Crypto command. The European Union Customer and Crypto bank (Mica) developed his orders at Start 2023. Although they won’t be coming into force for another one to two years after that, they will give institutional investors regulatory clarity for crypto.
The absence of regulatory clarity is why institutions have been hesitant to invest in crypto, especially altcoins. Creating a clear framework in the EU and elsewhere could lead to more entry and contribute to the Q1 recovery for crypto. Most importantly, crypto laws will effectively enforce crypto services from corruption. In fact, the only way to avoid many of these rules is to remove them from top to bottom.
Some crypto laws may not be good regarding payments, DeFi, and privacy. Of course, all these niches pose a risk to the traditional financial system. Fortunately, the crypto industry can thrive with strict regulations. In addition, the increase in adoption and capital will allow crypto companies to push to remove harmful regulations. Keep in mind that powerful people in business often want privacy.
4. DeFi will succeed
The fourth crypto prediction is that DeFi will be successful because of better front-ends, transparency leading to increased revenue, and proof of return of certain DeFi principles. This will increase trust in DeFi and reduce trust in middlemen and crypto companies. Guy also mentioned that the caveat is that harmful crypto laws could slow down DeFi adoption. So far, however, DeFi has not yet been included in many crypto laws that offer truly decentralized systems. Ironically, many of the top DeFi systems are decentralized, including those on Ethereum. Most of the basic DeFi principles in Ethereum have been tested by companies in the permission environment, namely Aave. Interestingly, DeFi is a technology that competes with traditional financial systems, as it allows trading, borrowing, lending and saving.
Guy declares that the institutional adoption of DeFi is inevitable as many companies realize that the arrival of new technologies, such as blockchain, means that there will be a race to the ground regarding transaction fees and transactions time.
5. Other Crypto Payments
The fifth crypto prediction for 2023 is related to the third, and that is that crypto payments will become more mainstream. This will also be due to a combination of better interfaces, regulation, increased liquidity, and, most importantly, increased scalability that ultimately makes crypto payments possible. Guy says his prediction comes from an article about Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin saying how Layer-2 scaling in Ethereum will enable crypto payments. Also, the developers will report and implement the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP #4844) in March 2023. For those who do not know, EIP 4844 will increase the scalability of Layer 2s in Ethereum by between 10 and 100x. Since many Layer 2s process thousands of TPS, such an increase would put them in Visa. The author believes that it is likely that Layer 2s on Ethereum will be zero-sum for crypto payments once EIP 4844 is implemented. He also said that other smart contract cryptocurrencies will participate, but they will probably find their own niche. The catch is that the proliferation of crypto payments can lead to regulatory scrutiny. His biggest fear is that regulators will eventually require you to complete KYC if you want to use stablecoins and cryptocurrency smart contracts like Ethereum, quote,
“Few administrators have expressed this. The most exciting part about this opportunity is that it will be easy to apply since the large amount of seeds is controlled. The silver fruit is in the transition of the KYC against payment will lead to new in total niche niche. But some protocols Popalils are available before the process.”
6. Crypto holders to increase
Guy’s sixth crypto prediction for 2023 is that the number of crypto holders will increase dramatically. For context, crypto adoption is currently at around 4% of the world population. That does not sound like much, but the growth has been great, and there are many reasons that this trend will continue this year. One reason is that social media platforms that integrate crypto strategies, such as Meta’s Facebook and Instagram, have tested NFTs and multiple cryptocurrencies. Even Starbucks is working on an NFT loyalty and membership program with Polygon. Notably, free speech-focused social media platforms such as Telegram and Signal have integrated crypto plans with TON coins and MobileCoin, respectively.
All these companies have billions of employees combined. Even a small percentage of crypto adoption by their users will be important. There are three reasons why people accept crypto;
Speculation, in other words, value.
Because of necessity.
Just for fun.
Given the current marginal climate, there won’t be much adoption in 2023. It’s going “out of necessity” and “just for fun.” Although most crypto adoption this year will likely be motivated by “just for fun” like those mentioned above and social media, there may be an increase in crypto adoption. cryptography is related to importance. Many countries are on the verge of collapse due to economic, social and political problems.
We have already seen some failures, like in Sri Lanka. Cash and crypto will be the only options when financial systems fail, especially as foreign currencies fall against the US dollar.
7. Other countries will accept BTC as legal tender
The seventh crypto proposal is related to the fifth: at least one country will accept BTC as legal tender. Tonga has joined the list since the island nation announced that it will soften BTC from the second quarter and start playing BTC from the third quarter of 2023. The statement for this movement is important for financial equipment, to depend on payments, as well as a foreign currency that cannot be controlled, eg US dollars.
These are one reason why El Salvador accepted BTC as a lawyer in September 2021. This is why some countries in Latin America are the ones who will follow. This is the reason for the Central African Republic Republic approves BTC as a legal bill in Aprilking CFA of cracking. Countries that accept BTC as legal tender do not mean they have to abandon their national currency. They will likely continue to use their national currency alongside BTC, assuming there is no total collapse of the financial system. It is possible that some countries will accept cryptocurrency as part of the new Central bank digital currency (CBDC). This seems impossible, since crypto currency and digital currency are contradictory, but it has been shown in various reports, including one from Harvard University.
8. High technical industry increases the number of crypto integrations
The 823 prophetically connected to the past two, it is a large technical company to proceed to estimate the link of cryptography. Like the countries that could support BTC, the tech giants are finally getting crypto because they are losing money and trying to find a way to plug the gap.
Tech giants like Apple and Amazon have been looking to hire people for crypto-related situations over the past few years. Although there has been no significant progress from them or other large technology companies with similar job openings, all of those may come this year.
Although the new owner of Twitter, Elon Musk, is currently handling free speech and research in front of the government investigation, he made it clear that he intends to put privacy features into the platform. It’s clear that this is the direction big tech is going. Acceptance of crypto or NFT by Facebook, Instagram, et al. The above mentioned will almost certainly inspire other big tech to do the same.
He also says that the great technology of crypto can be connected to Metaverse, since it is created by few people who support Metaverse Central Meta. They know that they are nothing more than a way to extract even more data to sell to the media and with government surveillance and surveillance.
Meta and others will eventually realize that the only way to monetize this new technology is to combine it with other non-profit systems. The role of the tech giant will be to provide hardware and access points that enhance the user experience.
9. Wall Street to Acquire Blue Chip Crypto Firms
The ninth crypto prediction is that the wolves of Wall Street will acquire at least one blue-chip crypto company. Guy thinks this could give him Goldman Sachs and others interested in taking over a few FTX subsidiaries that continue to melt. Also, the change in third platform is broken to break off the last year. Celsius, Blockfi, and Digital Digital is an easy example, as some of the money company wants to give Crypto. There are even speculations that megabanks can acquire Coinbase like JP Morgan, as the possible fall of the struggle of crypto companies in the US such as Digital Currency Group, Greyscale, and Genesis Trading can affect Coinbase. Coinbase is also involved in USDC issuer Circle, which posted unprecedented profits in the third quarter of last year. If Coinbase stock drops significantly, there is a scenario where a takeover of some sort may occur. After all, Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, and major Wall Street banks have seen billions of dollars flowing into their accounts on the exchange over the past two years. They have also seen how much Coinbase can make and probably the amount of data they can collect.
10. International trade with BTC
The 10th crypto prediction for 2023 is that BTC will start to be used for international trade. Some countries have shown interest in using BTC for international trade, including those under sanctions or scrutiny from the United States and its allies. The legal list is only a few of the so-called rogue actors, but it is growing rapidly as we enter the world of many people. In one tree, we have the United States and its allies; On the other hand, we have the BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and their allies. As mentioned in this article, the BRICS are reportedly working on their reserve currency, a combination of their existing currencies.
Iran has already officially approved the use of cryptocurrency for international trade, and Saudi Arabia has a renewed interest in crypto as its central bank has hired a crypto chief to boost digital ambitions. Hong Kong will also ease restrictions, and Russia appears to be working on crypto legislation. This apparent crypto adoption by the BRICS could see them add BTC to their reserve currency basket.
Once it becomes clear that BTC is a viable option, it won’t be just the so-called naughty or sanctioned nations adopting it. When that tipping point occurs, we’ll see what Fidelity has called Bitcoin, a “very high stakes game theory” where countries will rapidly adopt BTC.
All things considered, as I’m kind of a “glass half full”, this year could see a positive turn for crypto on various levels. Considering the chaos and backlash that crypto has endured for over a decade. All the difficulties that the crypto industry has found itself in stimulate new technologies to reduce the pain and mature growth. It takes decades of trial and error to implement a strong and efficient financial system, and all it takes is a few years of weak or corrupt government to bring the global economy into balance. knee. Although the current crypto market is considered low, compared to historical highs, we are seeing a stabilization of prices, and BTC and real altcoins will take as an unchanging constant. In other words, crypto can and will be used as intended, not for speculation, but as a payment system in full measure in a deflationary market that is valuable given his little money. It will have a balance and be well organized to withstand the collapse of the traditional economic system and its fiat currency.